Serie A action heads to Bologna on 30 November as a club enjoying a purple patch at domestic and European level hosts a side that has been far more fragile but habitually dangerous late in games. The data in the build-up points to a clear favourite, but also to a set of match patterns that could make this closer than the headline numbers suggest.
Season snapshot — where the balance lies
Bologna arrive with a superior league record across the board: after 12 league games they have 24 points and a +13 goal difference. Cremonese sit on 14 points, with a negative goal difference and far fewer wins. That gulf in returns explains why the market makes Bologna heavy favourites, but raw numbers conceal the stylistic risks for the home side.
| Key indicator | Bologna | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Played (GP) | 12 | 12 |
| Points | 24 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 3–5–4 |
| Goals F–A | 21–8 | 13–16 |
| Goal difference (GD) | +13 | -3 |
Patterns to watch — defensive frailties vs late threat
The matchup is not just about who has scored more. Two patterns jump out. First, Bologna create more chances and dominate set-piece/possession metrics — their corners and shots numbers underline that — but they also concede fewer shots on average. Second, Cremonese score late: their top minute window is heavily skewed to the final 15 minutes, which is an obvious tactical warning for a home side that sometimes relaxes control late.
| Key indicator | Bologna | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes, season) | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 50% | 42% |
| Clean sheets (season) | 4/20 | 13/20 |
| Avg corners (for) | 5.17 | 2.92 |
| Min/goal (against) | 135 | 67.5 |
Recent attacking form — last five matches
Looking at the last five-match samples, Bologna have found the net more often and produced a healthier shots-on-target tally; Cremonese are less prolific but more efficient at converting late opportunities. That combination explains why matches involving Cremonese frequently open up in the closing stages.
| Indicator (last 5) | Bologna | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5) | 8 | 5 |
| Shots on target (last 5) | 20 | 18 |
| Shot conversion (last 5) | 40% | 28% |
| Top minute window | 46–60 (38%) | 76–90 (60%) |
| Offsides (last 5) | 12 | 7 |
Market view, head-to-head and what it means
Markets strongly favour Bologna and the head‑to‑head history tilts that way too: the summary in the data shows Bologna have outscored Cremonese in recent meetings. Local media mood is upbeat for Bologna — the headlines referenced in the build-up included “Gasp on top, Bologna party, Chivu under pressure” — and Friday’s national stories also noted Bologna’s recent European win that helped Italy’s coefficient push.
| Indicator | Value | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Market: Match winner (Bologna) | 78% | Market pick |
| Over/Under lean | Under 2.5 — 54% | Market projection |
| BTTS (market) | Yes — 56% | Match-level projection |
| Head-to-head (recent goals) | Bologna 6 — Cremonese 2 | H2H summary |
| Recent H2H results | CRE 1–5 BOL; BOL 1–1 CRE | Last meetings |
Scenarios and significance
Practical scenarios for Monday:
- A comfortable Bologna win would underline their recent momentum — domestic form plus the Europa League success cited in the national round-up — and further distance them from mid-table mediocrity.
- If Cremonese nick a point or a win, it will be a reminder that their late-game effectiveness is a genuine threat; such a result would re-open questions about Bologna’s concentration in the final 15 minutes.
- An ultra-tight, low-scoring game would validate the market lean toward under 2.5, but the same outcome would also increase scrutiny of Bologna’s finishing versus top opponents and Cremonese’s ability to turn chances into late points.
On balance the numbers and market favour Bologna, but any preview that ignores Cremonese’s pattern of late goals and the BTTS signals does so at its peril. This is a match where the favourite should win — and where complacency in the closing stages would prove costly.